The Quickest of Thoughts II: Pitchers Edition (only on Blu-Ray)

Apologies for the lull between posts. I’ve been entertaining friends and family in my adopted city of Portland, Ore. for the past week — while mourning the fact I will likely miss the playoffs in my head-to-head league because of a tiebreaker. More like a heartbreaker.

I’ll get back to more quantitative analysis in the coming days. For now, here’s more quick stuff.

———-

Brandon Beachy, ATL

For playoff contenders, abandon ship (unless you’ve got space on the DL or you’re in a dynasty league). The guy has been filthy throughout his professional career, so some offseason rest will likely do him some good. Potential top-30 pitcher next year, and that’s being modest.

Marco Estrada, MIL

Is this the same Marco Estrada who humiliated me earlier this year? Part of me wonders if he only likes to turn it on after the All-Star Break. Take a look at his post-ASB numbers the past two years:

2012: 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 88 K (9.1 K/9), only 7 HR allowed in 15 starts
2013: 1.88 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 21 K (7.9 K/9), only 3 BB allowed in 4 starts

I’m being a bit facetious, because Estrada was quietly good for the entirety of 2012, but he was plagued by the long ball and poor control in the first half of this year. Aside from the flashy ratios, the three walks across 24 innings is particularly pleasing, reassuring, what-have-you. As Papa Roach once eloquently sang, “The scars remind us that the past is real” — and the scars Estrada gave me this year (further deepened every time I remember I watched Hisashi Iwakuma sit in free agency for three starts before getting signed) make it hard for me to trust him immediately. But, again, if I’m a contender, I’m on board. If his amazing post-Break K/BB ratio continues into 2014, I’m buying again.

Dan Haren, WAS

I’m sold on the bounceback… but I’m not, ya know? Haren has been very hittable this year, serving up a ton of home runs, and that trend has continued through the All-Star Break. However, since the Break, he has posted a 2.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in seven starts — certainly hard to ignore. But his BAbip is also .225, more than 100 points lower than his first-half mark, meaning his sudden turnaround is kind of a fluke.

Ultimately, fluctuations in HR/FB rates are largely a product of good or bad luck, and Haren’s 2013 rate is the highest of his career, as was his BAbip heading into the Break. His K/BB rate is one of the highest of his career, comparable to his All-Star/Cy Young contender days, and his strikeout rate is the best it has been since 2010. If the Washington Nationals can put 2013 in the past next year, I could see Haren bouncing back quite nicely if he can maintain his progress.

Carlos Martinez, STL

The scouts love him, but he was sent down again by the Cardinals. He may not help much this year, so don’t count on it. I’m wary of his walk rate becoming something unmanageable at the major league level, but his ability to induce outs as well as his high strikeout rate should help suppress any issues his walk rate may cause.

Danny Salazar, CLE

Salazar has become a rather underwhelming option after taking the league by storm in his first handful of starts. As Chris Towers of CBSSports.com noted, the Indians have been very strict with Salazar’s innings. Unless he is incredibly efficient, he won’t eat enough innings to be truly effective — he won’t strike out as many guys, and he may not even reach the five-inning mark needed to qualify for a win more frequently than not, just like has he has done twice in his last three starts. He’s a fashionable option now, but his leash is very short.

Oh yeah, and…

Matt Harvey, NYM

Yikes. Rarely have I muttered an expletive out loud while reading a text message — and I don’t even own him. This has surely freaked out a lot of owners, and I don’t have much solace to offer. He’ll be back next year? The Mets may actually be a force to be reckoned with in 2014?

Let’s look at the big picture, though. If you’re in a standard rotisserie league, you have about 320 innings (of 1,600) left to throw. You’re a contender with a 3.502 ERA and 1.180 WHIP with 1,200 strikeouts. So let’s say Harvey would have thrown another seven or eight starts — say, 48 innings — before season’s end. Here’s how Harvey would affect your numbers:

Before Harvey’s injury (1280 IP): 3.502 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 1200 K (8.44 K/9)
If Harvey was healthy (1328 IP): 3.456 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 1251 K (8.48 K/9)

See, we’re so deep into the season that Harvey’s rest-of-season projected impact (based on his current stats) is greatly diluted — only for certain teams in certain leagues will an improvement of half a run earn you multiple points in the standings. And given how few starts pitchers have left, someone who lost Harvey may even have something to gain by playing the hot hand of someone with a 0.708 WHIP over his last seven starts (Haren) or a 7.88 K/9 since coming off the DL (Estrada).

In head-to-head leagues, the story is a little different, but no so much. It is less about the big picture, like in rotisserie, as it is about the current week. It relies much more heavily on small sample sizes, and that’s what the end of the regular season truly is. Quit crying and ride a hot hand. You’ll be OK, trust me!

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