The idea is simple: In a standard 10-team mixed league, an owner is allotted six spots to fill with starting pitchers. That relegates everyone else drafted No. 61 and higher to fantasy benches or free agency.
That doesn’t mean pitchers drafted outside the top 60 are worse than pitchers in the top 60. You can find good pitchers up until the 60th pick — heck, it’s the Brewers’ Marco Estrada, who has excellent control and solid strikeout numbers — but as many as a third of those 60 are risky are overvalued. Value bleeds into the late rounds and it’s worth figuring out who’s worth reaching for, despite pitchers with better ADPs (average draft positions) still on the board, and who’s worth waiting for.
I’ll discuss a handful of pitchers I like outside my top 60, in order of ESPN ADP.
John Lackey | ADP: 63rd
Lackey had a renaissance 2013, coming back from a lost 2012 and miserable 2011. The strikeout and walk rates were second-best and best of his career, respectively, and there’s little reason to think he’ll crumble overnight. He’s less risky than Dan Haren (about whom I’ve been vocal about my distrust), who is being drafted 49th of starting pitchers, or Dan Straily, going 56th, who is honestly mediocre. He’s enough to fill the back of your rotation, let alone a bench spot.
Alex Wood | ADP: 66th
Wood is a control artist, and the Braves simply know how to develop pitchers. Scouts and experts are excited about him; I don’t know why he’s not getting more draft love. He’s guaranteed a rotation spot, due to the rash of injuries to Atlanta starters, and should be more than serviceable.
Corey Kluber | ADP: 79th
I love Kluber.
Josh Beckett | ADP: 91st
Sources say he’s recovering well from his surgery. If he makes the Dodgers’ rotation and remotely resembles the Beckett of old, he’s a value.
Tyson Ross | ADP: 103rd
He absolutely dealt for the Padres last year. A reader mentioned he could be on an innings limit, but I would still ride him until he’s shuffled out of the rotation, and then simply find a replacement for him.
James Paxton | ADP: 105th
If the Royals’ Yordano Ventura is going 62nd on average, there’s no reason Paxton should be going outside the top 100 pitchers. Paxton doesn’t gas a 10o-mph heater like Ventura does but his strikeout and walk rates are very similar to Ventura’s.
Tyler Skaggs | ADP: 110th
Skaggs was a three-time top-100 prospect for Baseball America, peaking at No. 12 in 2013 (and No. 17 for Baseball Prospectus). It would be a mistake to write him off so soon after one bad season, especially with minor-league numbers better than those of Ventura or Paxton. His 2013 and current spring training numbers are an eyesore, though, so the repulsion is understandable. But, as I always say, he’s a name worth remembering.