Player Rater Watch: Second Base, last 30 days

I think someone flipped the ESPN Player Rater upside-down for second basemen. It’s, how to say it… bizarre. Two, maybe three of the top 10 now were drafted as such on draft day. The rest are scattered all over. Maybe this is how it looked last year, but honestly, I don’t remember. However, I know enough about statistics and this beautiful sport to know that a lot of crazy stuff can happen in small sample sizes, and when it happens at the beginning of the season, the strangeness magnifies.

I don’t have high hopes for the current top 10, though. I think six of them have a chance to stay there, but as we know all too well, anything can happen.

Dee Gordon, LAD | #1 2B
I wrote a lengthy post about Gordon, but if you are lazy, here is the quickest of recaps: I project .261/.300/.326, 58 R, 1 HR, 31 RBI and 57 SB for his remaining 118 (or so) games — that is, if his caliber of play enables him to stay in the lineup all year with Alexander Guerrero and his $28 million contract breathing down Gordon’s neck from Triple-A.

Brian Dozier, MIN | #2 2B
Man, did I ever underestimate this guy. It’s difficult when I player who never really hit for much power in the minors launches 18 long balls and swipes 14 bags to boot. It’s hard to give him credit for what he did, and I regressed his ratio of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB) given his lack of track record. It does make a bit of sense, though, if you remove the historical component: the dude is 27 years old, essentially entering his prime years. It doesn’t really matter, though; the fringe 20 HR, 20 SB candidate is now on pace for a 40-40 season. That won’t happen, but do I think there’s a legitimate chance he hits 25? Absolutely. And who can even say about the stolen bases. You have to think it’ll slow down, but will it? At one time, I essentially called Dozier a poor man’s Ian Desmond (I also called him Brian “Bull” Dozier, which I since regret) because of his 20-20 potential but at the expense of batting average. At this point, he’s going to be a 25-25 guy, and that plus a .240 batting average perhaps makes him more valuable than Desmond and his potential 21-19-.280. And yet, after all this talk, maybe we haven’t even touched upon the most impressive statistic: his walk rate of 15.7 percent (1oth among all qualified batters), which hedges against his poor batting average. Maybe it regresses, but it doesn’t matter — Dozier is for real.

Daniel Murphy, NYM | #3 2B
I’d rather just write An Ode to Murphy, as he has long been a man-crush of mine. I owned him in 2012, when he was still a fledgling 10-10 candidate with a solid batting average. In 2013, I owned him for a little while but dropped him before he stole all the bags in all the stadiums. Now, he’s doing it all again: hitting for a high average, stealing bases and lobbing a few over the fence. He may be at his all-time best, striking out less than he did in 2012 and 2013 and walking at a career-high rate. He has also been able to sustain the fly ball rate that fueled his homer binge last year, so a 15-20 season is not out of the question at this point. Oh, the leagues we could have conquered together, Daniel…

Emilio Bonifacio, CHC | #7 2B
Bonifacio had one good year, back in 2011. This year is looking a lot like that year. The first thing that pops out about that year, though: a .372 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a good deal above his career .336 rate. This year? A .398 BABIP. He’s batting .313 now, but that’s not as exorbitant as I would expect it to be. It has a long way to fall, and it’s only a matter of time until Bonifacio is no longer relevant in a 10-team league — that is, unless he maintains his high BABIP, which he has done before, but only on one occasion. I would sell high while the window is still open.

Anthony Rendon, WAS | #10 2B
At this point, he is what he is. I think you can expect this kind of production from here on out, which doesn’t make him an excellent second baseman, but you could certainly do worse.

Robinson Cano, SEA | #11 2B
I projected Bob Cano for 30 home runs, and I defended his plate production in a prior post. I can’t backtrack, and I won’t appear credible for recanting my statements. But I had run a projection on Cano back in March that factored in Safeco Field’s park factors, and let me tell you, it wasn’t pretty: 17 home runs. I kind of wish I stuck with it; it seemed ridiculous, especially for a home run hitter in the prime of his career. Even if he hit fewer at home, he could make up for the deficiency on the road. In his defense, his HR/FB rate is incredibly low, and that will regress; in that sense, he’s a buy-low candidate. But he’s hitting the fewest fly balls of his career, and as a Cano owner, I would feel fortunate to notch, say, 23 bombs. With that said, that means he’s still got 22 more home runs to hit, so if you succeed in buying low on him, it should pay dividends.

Dustin Pedroia, BOS | #12 2B
OK, I’m gonna say it: I’m afraid Pedroia may not reach 10 steals or 10 home runs. He simply does not hit as many fly balls as he used to, and given his HR/FB rate is right where it was last year, maybe this is the new norm, and last year wasn’t an anomaly. I would prospectively buy low on Pedroia, but I’d do it for cheap. Mark my words: Pedroia may no longer be a viable top-10 second baseman after this year.

Matt Carpenter, STL | #17 2B
Strikeouts are way up, and the BABIP is down. He has hit for high BABIPs the past two years, so it’s conceivable that his batting average rises a few ticks, but it’s the aforementioned strikeouts that are most concerning. He’s still on pace to record something like 100 runs, which is pretty awesome, so you can’t really drop him. But the RBI aren’t really there, and with not much power, speed or batting average ability, he’s starting to become a liability.

Jason Kipnis, CLE | #25 2B
Patience, young Padawan. Kipnis will come around. Don’t be surprised when he’s not near the top of the year-end Player Rater, though. That’s what injuries will do to a great player.

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