Tagged: Colby Rasmus

2014 Rankings: Outfielders

Rankings based on 10-team standard 5×5 rotisserie format.

Name – R / RBI / HR / SB / BA

  1. Mike Trout – 119 / 91 / 31 / 39 / .320
  2. Ryan Braun – 98 / 103 / 30 / 28 / .308
  3. Andrew McCutchen – 102 / 90 / 23 / 27 / .298
  4. Adam Jones – 97 / 91 / 32 / 15 / .283
  5. Jose Bautista – 101 / 96 / 37 / 6 / .276
  6. Carlos Gonzalez – 92 / 86 / 24 / 20 / .299
  7. Matt Holliday – 95 / 97 / 24 / 5 / .300
  8. Carlos Gomez – 95 / 69 / 24 / 39 / .268
  9. Alex Rios – 91 / 82 / 21 / 28 / .284
  10. Hunter Pence – 88 / 99 / 23 / 14 / .275
  11. Jay Bruce – 86 / 101 / 33 / 8 / .253
  12. Jacoby Ellsbury – 84 / 56 / 13 / 45 / .286
  13. Justin Upton – 95 / 77 / 24 / 15 / .270
  14. Josh Hamilton – 79 / 92 / 28 / 8 / .272
  15. Austin Jackson – 105 / 53 / 16 / 13 / .292
  16. Alex Gordon – 90 / 76 / 19 / 12 /.281
  17. Shane Victorino – 91 / 62 / 16 / 26 / .278
  18. Yoenis Cespedes – 78 / 87 / 26 / 12 / .265
  19. Michael Cuddyer – 86 / 84 / 21 / 10 / .271
  20. Giancarlo Stanton – 75 / 85 / 31 / 5 / .259
  21. Bryce Harper – 88 / 60 / 21 / 15 / .273
  22. Yasiel Puig – 91 / 73 / 19 / 16 / .256
  23. Carlos Beltran – 75 / 80 / 22 / 3 / .286
  24. Torii Hunter – 79 / 83 / 17 / 6 / .283
  25. Curtis Granderson – 81 / 63 / 32 / 15 / .250
  26. Jayson Werth – 68 / 62 / 23 / 13 / .298
  27. Starling Marte – 89 / 51 / 14 / 43 / .249
  28. Adam Eaton – 98 / 45 / 10 / 29 / .274
  29. Norichika Aoki – 87 / 47 / 11 / 25 / .289
  30. Matt Kemp – 70 / 68 / 20 / 13 / .294
  31. Jason Heyward – 82 / 65 / 25 / 11 / .263
  32. Melky Cabrera – 77 / 66 / 14 / 11 / .297
  33. Michael Bourn – 94 / 52 / 7 / 31 / .269
  34. Alfonso Soriano – 72 / 99 / 27 / 7 / .241
  35. Carl Crawford – 81 / 62 / 12 / 20 / .284
  36. Shin-Soo Choo – 77 / 66 / 17 / 19 / .272
  37. Nelson Cruz – 66 / 81 / 25 / 10 / .267
  38. Coco Crisp – 84 / 59 / 11 / 29 / .264
  39. Wil Myers – 82 / 86 / 17 / 8 / .258
  40. Nick Markakis – 83 / 75 / 13 / 1 / .281
  41. Khris Davis – 74 / 74 / 23 / 8 / .254
  42. Desmond Jennings – 87 / 51 / 14 / 26 / .255
  43. Rajai Davis – 68 / 44 / 8 / 47 / .267
  44. Billy Hamilton – 77 / 39 / 2 / 68 / .241
  45. Brett Gardner – 92 / 48 / 7 / 27 / .263
  46. Justin Ruggiano – 63 / 63 / 22 / 18 / .253
  47. Angel Pagan – 70 / 51 / 8 / 22 / .285
  48. Domonic Brown – 68 / 79 / 19 / 6 / .251
  49. Michael Brantley – 66 / 59 / 8 / 17 / .285
  50. B.J. Upton – 72 / 60 / 15 / 27 / .224
  51. Christian Yelich – 80 / 53 / 11 / 21 / .246
  52. Josh Reddick – 71 / 66 / 19 / 8 / .240
  53. Will Venable – 61 / 51 / 12 / 24 / .265
  54. Josh Willingham – 67 / 77 / 21 / 3 / .237
  55. Andre Ethier – 60 / 64 / 15 / 3 / .281
  56. Dayan Viciedo – 61 / 68 / 21 / 0 / .264
  57. Colby Rasmus – 75 / 63 / 19 / 4 / .244
  58. Corey Hart – 64 / 61 / 16 / 3 / .272
  59. Kole Calhoun – 61 / 65 / 16 / 5 / .269
  60. Gerardo Parra – 66 / 51 / 10 / 10 / .281

Thoughts, lots of ’em:

  • Full disclosure: I have NO IDEA what to do for Billy Hamilton. I did a brief bit of research to see how a player’s stolen base trend changed throughout the minorsand  into the majors, and for the most part, a player still attempts to steal at about the same frequency in the majors as he did in Triple-A. As for Hamilton’s on-base percentage, that’s the million-dollar question. He’s a game-changer, but I don’t know if he’s worth taking in the first five or six rounds, as I’ve clearly shown above.
  • Ryan Braun, folks. He’s being drafted 17th on average in ESPN mock drafts right now, but I don’t see how he won’t be a top-10 or possibly top-5 fantasy player by year’s end. On their Fantasy Focus podcast, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft argued about how many bases Braun will steal. My projection is lofty; Karabell is pretty negative about it, thinking closer to 15 swipes. Still, give him a mere 10 stolen bases and he’s still the game’s second-best outfielder. He’s a rich man’s Andrew McCutchen formerly on PEDs. So… not quite McCutchen, but you know.
  • Speaking of PEDs, it’s weird to see Melky Cabrera’s name on that list, yeah? A look at his peripherals last year shows he may have suffered some bad luck beyond any PED regression (if such a thing exists), including a horrid AB/RBI rate that’s all but out of Melky’s hands. I’ll give it another season before writing him off completely; we tend to have too short of memories when it comes to players in fantasy. He was solid for two years, and I’ll take a two-year trend over one. Considering he’s being drafted 52nd overall, I guess this officially makes him a sleeper.
  • CarGo is ranked uncharacteristically low, but my projection took the under on his games player. I maintain if he can play a full year, he’s actually a smidge better than Braun. If you’re cool with risk and can build a roster around the possibility that CarGo will be sidelined at any given moment, he’s worth the massive upside of staying healthy just once. Please, CarGo. For us.
  • Speaking of guys with built-in injury risks: Ellsbury, Stanton, Harper, Granderson, Werth. If you want to construct a risky, huge-upside team, make these guys your five outfielders. Don’t forget the Grandy Man hit more than 40 home runs in 2012 and 2013, and Stanton can hit 40 home runs with his eyes closed. He’s, what, 24 years old? That’s insane.
  • Touching on Harper again, I know he’s pretty low here. If he can play a full 162 or a close to it, he’s a 30/20 guy who will crack the top 10. I think the MVP talk can be put to rest before the season starts, though.
  • Wait, guys — WHAT? Jose Bautista? Yeah, dude. He’s a monster and, like Granderson, he still has huge power. It never left, and he was on pace for big things last year before it got derailed. Take a leap of faith. One of these guys has to stay healthy this year, right?
  • Puig will naturally be a topic of discussion all year. I paid careful attention to Puig’s projection; let me be very clear that I think this is his absolute floor. This is looking at huge regression in BAbip (batting average on balls in play) and HR/FB (home runs per fly ball). Honestly, he’s probably better than a .300-BAbip batter, and if the power and speed is real, this is a huge undervalue. I’m well aware that every other projection has him snugly in the top 30 or so players, so this is likely falling on deaf ears.
  • I wrote about Cruz’s immense power potential that is perpetually muted by his inability to stay on the field. You know what’s super interesting? He’ll likely be used in some weird rotation with Nolan Reimold and Henry Urrutia all at left field and the designated hitter, with him seeing the lion’s share of at-bats at DH — all but removing his injury risk. Give him another 150 at-bats and he’ll gladly reward you with eight to 10 bombs. Now, to remove that PED risk, too.
  • Khris “Krush” Davis is interesting because it’s hard to tell if his power is super-for-real or just regular for-real. Like Puig, I think this is more of a floor projection — and that’s saying a lot. The strikeouts might be a problem, but if you’re drafting him for his batting average, you’re not doing it right.
  • Yelich at No. 51 was really interesting to me. He’s a sneaky speed guy with something like a 15-homer, 25-steal upside and a solid batting average, making him a must-draft outfielder. If only there were Marlins on base for him to knock in…
  • Honorable mentions for cheap power Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse
    Honorable mentions for cheap speed: Leonys Martin and Ben Revere. I actually like Martin a lot more than his lack of projection here indicates. He’s got pop, and a full season in the Texas Rangers’ outfield makes him 100-percent draftworthy.
  • P.S. I don’t have much faith in Marlon Byrd. But take a chance on him if you want.
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The case for Rajai Davis as a must-draft

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis is 95th on the ESPN player rater this year with a whopping 45 stolen bases in only 349 plate appearances through Sept. 22. To compare, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Brandon Phillips is No. 94 on the player rater, and he has amassed 646 plate appearances. That’s almost double the playing time Davis has seen. Although it’s not as simple as I’m about to state it, one could claim Davis has been doubly effective in his limited playing time compared to Phillips, even with Davis’ modest batting average and low RBI count.

By the way, Davis was 96th on the player rater in 2012. I’m starting to think this is no coincidence.

I’m being facetious. It’s totally not a coincidence. Davis has swiped 216 bags in the past five years alone. He has more steals than Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury since 2007, the year of their rookie seasons, and more steals relative to playing time (measured by plate appearances or games, your choice).

OK, you get it. He’s fast. That’s not the question here. The question is, and has been, since 2007: What will Davis’ playing time look like? And that is a question that has been difficult to answer for years — hence why Davis has gone undrafted the past two years.

And the answer to the question, at least for next year, is pretty apparent: Melky Cabrera in left, Colby Rasmus in center, Jose Bautista in right. But is it really that simple?

Brett Lawrie has, again, disappointed owners this year, but it’s not like Munenori Kawasaki (or whoever is manning second base nowadays) is any better. If Lawrie moves back to second base, Bautista to third and Encarnacion to first, it would leave room for Davis to play left field. This situation completely disregards Adam Lind, but he can slot in as the designated hitter if he does not pursue arbitration. If he does, that leaves even more space for Davis.

Moreover, I think it’s about time to let Joey Bats assume the DH role, at least until he can prove he can stay healthy. Even with Lind at first, Lawrie at second and Encarnacion at third, it still leaves a spot open for Davis. And even if this doesn’t happen, Davis has been more productive than Cabrera now that the speedster has been showing some pop (six home runs this year), which he showed last year as well.

So if I’m a Davis owner, which I conveniently am, I’m considering keeping him for next year. If he’s a free agent, I’m adding him.

Because if Davis earns a full-time role, he is not only a top-100 player — remember, he’s No. 95 right now, on limited playing time — he could be something like a top-50 player, or maybe even better than that. Even in a platoon role (he has smoked lefties to the tune of .330/.395/.491 this year) he would be plenty valuable, and he always has the chance of inheriting playing time with every Joey Bats at-bat.

Now, even with all these scenarios, there’s one last caveat: Davis is a free agency this offseason. While he could stay in Toronto, where he seemingly has the green light, he could sign with a team that is looking for a Billy Hamilton type — a speedy, spark-plug pinch runner.

In all scenarios — a full-time role, a platoon role, even a pinch running role — Davis deserves to be drafted. In which round is a question for another day, but it’s a question I plan to revisit. Davis could theoretically warrant a 10th-round pick in next year’s draft based on his performance the past two years. Otherwise, the incredible value he provides via stolen bases alone is worth a late-round draft pick whom you can stash on your bench until his playing time is sorted out.

In the meantime, keep abreast of Davis’ offseason. Any and all developments will have profound fantasy implications. There are only a handful of players about whom I can say that and mean it — and, until recently, I hadn’t even considered Davis a candidate for discussion. But he is. He’s a fantasy game-changer.