Tagged: Jake Peavy
Pitchers to sell high, buy low or cut bait
All right. It’s April. It’s horrifying, unless you’re doing well, and then it’s not. But, full disclosure, I’m not. Chicago White Sox staff ace Chris Sale just hit the 15-day disabled list yesterday, joining the Philadelphia Phillies’ Cole Hamels, Seattle Mariners’ James Paxton, Tampa Bay Rays’ Alex Cobb, Cincinnati Reds’ Mat Latos, New York Yankees’ David Robertson and the Detroit Tigers’ Doug Fister on my teams’ DLs. It’s killing me, really. It’s incredibly painful.
What I’m saying is I’ve spent more time than I’d care to admit frolicking in free agency, trying to figure out which early-season studs are legit or not. I’ve been pondering various buy-low situations as well. So I jumped into a pool of peripherals and PITCHf/x data to look for answers.
The list below is not remotely exhaustive. It’s mostly players I am watching or already using as replacements for my teams. Here they are, in no particular order.
Jake Peavy, BOS | 0-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 9.25 K/9
Peavy’s prime came and went about five years ago, so, full disclosure, I don’t know as much about him off the top of my head as I should. But I do know one thing: he doesn’t strike out a batter per inning anymore. In his defense, batters’ contact rate against him is the best it has been since 2009, his last truly good year. So maybe he will strike out a few more batters than last year, but I think it’ll be closer to 2012’s 7.97 K/9, not 2009’s 9.74 K/9. The WHIP is atrocious; the walk rate is through the roof. If there’s a guy in your league who will pay for what will end up being the illusion of ERA and strikeouts, by all means, trade him. He’s owned in 100 percent of leagues but doesn’t deserve to be.
Verdict: Sell high
John Lackey, BOS | 2-2, 5.25 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.63 K/9
Another Boston pitcher, another bad start to the season. I like Lackey a lot more, though, for a variety of reasons. One, last year’s renaissance was legitimate. Two, he’s not walking many batters right now, so his unspectacular ratios are more a result of an unlucky batting average on balls in play (.333 BABIP) than incompetence. Three, his swinging strike and contact rates are currently career bests. Again, we’re working with small sample sizes here, and this could easily regress. But considering his velocity is also at a career high, I don’t find it improbable that Lackey actually does better than he did last season. If an owner in your league has already dropped him, put in your waiver claim now.
Verdict: Buy low
Jesse Chavez, OAK | 1-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.69 K/9
Talk about unexpected. Chavez, who has been relevant about zero times, is making for an intriguing play in all leagues. It’s a given he will regress, especially considering the .242 BABIP, but his improved walk rate could be here to stay, as he is pounding the zone more than he ever has in his career. The strikeouts are somewhat of a mirage, but it looks like he can be a low-WHIP, moderate-strikeout guy, and that’s still valuable.
Verdict: Sell really high, or just ride the hot hand
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA | 1-1, 3.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.17 K/9
I wouldn’t call Eovaldi a trendy sleeper, but he certainly was a sleeper coming into 2014. It was all about whether he could command his pitchers better — and, like magic, it appears he has, walking only 1.07 batters per nine innings as opposed to 3.39-per-nine last year. The swinging strike and contact rates are concerning, as they are the lowest of his career, so it’s hard to see his strikeout rate going anywhere but down. However, he’s throwing 65 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, highest of all qualified pitchers. So there are two ways to look at this. His control has probably legitimate improved. Unfortunately, even the masterful Cliff Lee only threw 53.3 percent of pitches in the zone last year, and I am hesitant to claim Eovaldi has better control than Lee. This could be a “breakout” year of sorts for Eovaldi, but I’m using that term liberally here. He’s only owned in 20.5 percent of leagues, so this makes him more of a ride-the-hot-hand type, like Mr. Chavez above.
Verdict: Eventually drop, ideally before he does damage to your team
Mark Buehrle, TOR | 4-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.11 K/9
Look, I have had a long-standing man crush on Buehrle, but this is ridiculous. You know better than I that these happy dreams will soon become nightmares, not because Buehrle is awful or anything, but because regression rears its head in occasionally very brutal ways.
Verdict: Sell high
Alfredo Simon, CIN | 0.86 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 5.57 K/9
Something isn’t right here. A 0.81 WHIP and… fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings? As you become more familiar with sabermetrics, you quickly realize certain things don’t mesh. A low WHIP combined with the low strikeout rate is one of those things. I can tell you without looking that his BABIP is impossibly low — and, now looking, I see I’m right: it’s .197. Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN is all about Simon, and in his defense, Simon’s PITCHf/x data foreshadows some positive regression coming his way in the strikeout department. But it can only get worse from here for Simon. However, I think he has a bit of a Dan Straily look to him, and that’s certainly serviceable.
Verdict: Sell high, or just ride the hot hand
Yovani Gallardo, MIL | 1.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.93 K/9
This is a disaster waiting to happen. Like Simon, his strikeout rate is low, but for Gallardo, it is deservedly so: his swinging strike and contact rates are, by far, career worsts. Meanwhile, his ratios are buoyed by a .264 BABIP and 89.8% LOB% (left-on-base percentage), despite his 74.7% career LOB%. The Brewers will fall with him. Sell high, and sell fast.
Verdict: Sell high
Shelby Miller, STL | 3.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.34 K/9
Miller is the first pitcher on this list in whom owners actually invested a lot. Be patient. The 98.3-percent of owners who didn’t cut bait before his last start were surely rewarded. I imagine he’s leaving his pitches up in the zone, given his increased percentage of pitches thrown in the zone coupled with his home run rate. Speaking of which, he shouldn’t be walking five batters per nine innings when he’s throwing more than 50 percent of his pitches in the zone. He’ll be fine.
Verdict: Buy low
Homer Bailey, CIN | 5.75 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 11.07 K/9
Two words: .421 BABIP. Yowza. Again, owners invested way too much in this guy. Perfect buy-low opportunity here if you know your fellow owner is impatient.
Verdict: Buy low
Drew Hutchison, TOR | 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 10.80 K/9
I’ll be honest, I was surprised to see Hutchison’s xFIP stand at 3.43. It seems like he has been much worse — but has he really? The walks are problematic but not unmanageable (see: Matt Moore), and they’ve actually shored up a bit in his last couple of starts. Moreover, he is still striking out batters at an elite rate, and the PITCHf/x data supports his success, albeit probably not with quite as much success as he’s having now. As for the WHIP? A .365 BABIP sure doesn’t help. Hutchison was once a highly-touted prospect. Your window of opportunity to gamble on this live arm may be closing if he can keep his ERA down.
Verdict: Add via free agency, sooner rather than later
The role of luck in fantasy baseball
I apologize for being that guy that ruins that ooey gooey feeling you get when think about the fantasy league you won last year. As much as you want to think you are a fantasy master — perhaps even a fantasy god — you should acknowledge that you probably benefited from a good deal of luck. Sure, for your sake, I will admit you made a great pick with Max Scherzer in the fifth round. But did you, in all your mastery, predict he would win 21 games?
Don’t say yes. You didn’t. And frankly, you would be crazy to say he’ll do it again.
I focus primarily on pitching in this blog, and let it be known that pitchers are not exempt from luck in the realm of fantasy baseball. If you’re playing in a standard rotisserie league, you probably have a wins category. In a points league, you likely award points for wins.
Wins. Arguably the most arbitrary statistic in baseball. Let’s not have that discussion, though, and instead simply accept the win as it is. The win has the most drastic uncontrollable effect on a fantasy pitcher’s value. (ERA and WHIP experiences similar statistical fluctuations, but at least they aren’t arbitrary.)
I had an idea, but before I proceed, let me interject: if you’re drafting for wins, you’re doing it wrong. But, as I said, you can’t ignore wins.
But let’s say you did, and drafted strictly on talent, or “stuff” (which, here, factors in a pitcher’s durability). How would the top 30 pitchers change? Here’s my “stuff” list, which you can compare with the base projections:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Adam Wainwright
- Felix Hernandez
- Max Scherzer
- Cliff Lee
- Yu Darvish
- Chris Sale
- Cole Hamels
- Jose Fernandez
- Madison Bumgarner
- Stephen Strasburg
- David Price
- Justin Verlander
- Alex Cobb
- Homer Bailey
- Mat Latos
- Gerrit Cole
- Michael Wacha
- Anibal Sanchez
- James Shields
- Danny Salazar
- Marco Estrada
- A.J. Burnett
- Corey Kluber
- Brandon Beachy
- Zack Greinke
- Matt Cain
- Sonny Gray
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- Gio Gonzalez
Here are the five players with the biggest positive change and a breakdown of each:
- Brandon Beachy, up 23 spots
His injury history has weakened his wins column projection. Consequently, the number of innings Beachy is expected to throw is significantly less than a full season. But if he managed to stay healthy for the full year (say, 200 innings)? He’s a top-1o pick based on pure stuff. If you draft with the philosophy that you can always find a viable replacement on waivers, Beachy could be your big sleeper. - Marco Estrada, up 22 spots
Estrada’s diminished expected wins is more a function of his terrible team than ability. Estrada has underperformed the past two years, Ricky Nolasco style, but if he can pull it together, he’s a top-30 pitcher based on “stuff.” And hey, maybe he can luck into some extra wins. However, if he can’t pull it together — Ricky Nolasco style — he’ll be relegated to fringe starter. - Danny Salazar, up 9 spots
Salazar has immense potential. His injury history led the Indians to cap his per-game pitch count last year, and that has been factored into his projection. But if he’s a full-time, 200-inning starter? He’s a top-25 starter with top-15 upside. Again, this is in terms of “stuff”. But is Ivan Nova better than Felix Hernandez because he can magically win more games? Of course not. Among a slew of young studs, including Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha and so on, Salazar is a diamond in the rough. - A.J. Burnett, up 8 spots
His projection is already plenty good. But you saw how many games he won in 2013. Anything can happen. - Corey Kluber, up 8 spots
Most people were probably scratching their heads when they saw Kluber’s name listed above. Frankly, I’m in love with him, and it’s because he’s a stud with a great K/BB ratio. I understand why someone may be inclined to dismiss it as an aberration, but his swinging strike and contact rates are truly excellent. Even if they regress, he should be a draft-day target.
Here are the three starting pitchers with the biggest negative change.
- Anibal Sanchez, down 10 spots
He’s great, but he also plays for a great team. Call it Max Scherzer syndrome. He carries as big a risk as any other player to pitch great but only win five or six games, as do the next two players. - Hisashi Iwakuma, down 6 spots
- Zack Greinke, down 4 spots
Let me be clear that although I created a hypothetical scenario where wins didn’t exist, I don’t advocate for blindly drafting based on “stuff.” It’s important to acknowledge that certain players have a much better chance to win than others. Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox could win 17 games just as easily as he could win seven. It’s about playing the odds — and unless a pitcher truly pitches terribly, don’t blame the so-called experts for your bad luck. He probably put his money where his mouth is, too, and is suffering along with you.
Here is a more comprehensive list of pitchers ranked by “stuff,” if that’s the way you sculpt your strategy:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Adam Wainwright
- Felix Hernandez
- Max Scherzer
- Cliff Lee
- Yu Darvish
- Chris Sale
- Cole Hamels
- Jose Fernandez
- Madison Bumgarner
- Stephen Strasburg
- David Price
- Justin Verlander
- Alex Cobb
- Homer Bailey
- Mat Latos
- Gerrit Cole
- Michael Wacha
- Anibal Sanchez
- James Shields
- Danny Salazar
- Marco Estrada
- A.J. Burnett
- Corey Kluber
- Brandon Beachy
- Zack Greinke
- Matt Cain
- Sonny Gray
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- Gio Gonzalez
- Doug Fister
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Alex Wood
- Kris Medlen
- Jeff Samardzija
- Mike Minor
- Jake Peavy
- Kevin Gausman
- Tyson Ross
- Patrick Corbin
- Lance Lynn
- Francisco Liriano
- Andrew Cashner
- Ricky Nolasco
- CC Sabathia
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Tim Lincecum
- Tim Hudson
- Jered Weaver
- Shelby Miller
- Clay Buchholz
- Tony Cingrani
- Matt Garza
- John Lackey
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Justin Masterson
- Julio Teheran
- R.A. Dickey
- A.J. Griffin
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Dan Haren
- Johnny Cueto
- C.J. Wilson
- Ian Kennedy
- Chris Archer
- Kyle Lohse
- Scott Kazmir
- Carlos Martinez
- Jon Lester
- Ervin Santana
- Jose Quintana
- Derek Holland
- Garrett Richards
- Dan Straily
- Tyler Skaggs
Early SP rankings for 2014
I wouldn’t say pitching is deep, but I’m surprised by the pitchers who didn’t make my top 60.
Note: I have deemed players highlighted in pink undervalued and worthy of re-rank. Do not be alarmed just yet by what you may perceive to be a low ranking.
2014 STARTING PITCHERS
- Clayton Kershaw
- Adam Wainwright
- Max Scherzer
- Yu Darvish
- Felix Hernandez
- Cliff Lee
- Stephen Strasburg
- Jose Fernandez
- Cole Hamels
- Justin Verlander
- Anibal Sanchez
- Chris Sale
- Mat Latos
- Madison Bumgarner
- Alex Cobb
- Homer Bailey
- Gerrit Cole
- Zack Greinke
- David Price
- James Shields
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Michael Wacha
- Danny Salazar
- Jered Weaver
- A.J. Burnett *contingent on if he retires
- Kris Medlen
- Mike Minor
- Jake Peavy
- Corey Kluber
- Lance Lynn
- Matt Cain
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- CC Sabathia
- Gio Gonzalez
- Doug Fister
- Patrick Corbin
- Francisco Liriano
- Sonny Gray
- Ricky Nolasco
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Tim Hudson
- Marco Estrada
- Shelby Miller
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Tony Cingrani
- A.J. Griffin
- Brandon Beachy
- Tim Lincecum
- Clay Buchholz
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Alex Wood
- Julio Teheran
- Tyson Ross
- Hyun-jin Ryu
- Matt Garza
- Andrew Cashner
- Johnny Cueto
- C.J. Wilson
- John Lackey
- Justin Masterson
- R.A. Dickey
- Kevin Gausman
- Jon Lester
- Dan Haren
- Ervin Santana
- Derek Holland
- Chris Archer
- Jeff Samardzija
- Bartolo Colon
- Ivan Nova
- Matt Moore
- Ian Kennedy
- Dan Straily
- Rick Porcello
- Jarrod Parker
- Carlos Martinez
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Lohse
- Scott Kazmir
- Jason Vargas
- Tommy Milone
- Wade Miley
- Dillon Gee
- Brandon Workman
- Chris Tillman
- Zack Wheeler
- Yovani Gallardo
- Miguel Gonzalez
- Jose Quintana
- Garrett Richards
- Robbie Erlin
- Felix Doubront
- Jhoulys Chacin
- Jonathon Niese
- Chris Capuano
- Nick Tepesch
- Alexi Ogando
- Bronson Arroyo
- Travis Wood
- Trevor Cahill
- Tyler Skaggs
- Randall Delgado
- Martin Perez
- Mike Leake
- Carlos Villanueva
- Todd Redmond
- Brandon Maurer
- Tyler Lyons
- Ryan Vogelsong
- Zach McAllister
- Wily Peralta
- Brett Oberholtzer
- Erik Johnson
- Jorge De La Rosa
- Paul Maholm
- Hector Santiago
- Burch Smith
- Jeff Locke
- Joe Kelly
- Jason Hammel
- Jake Odorizzi
- Danny Hultzen
- Anthony Ranaudo
- Archie Bradley
- Rafael Montero
- James Paxton
- Taijuan Walker
- Yordano Ventura