Tagged: Kendrys Morales

Fairly early 2015 1B rankings

I posted my very early 2015 closer rankings a couple of weeks ago. In continuing with the trend, I present to you my preliminary, but mostly complete, rankings for first basemen. The prices are based on a standard 5×5 rotisserie league with a budget of $260 per team. In this instance, I assume 60 percent of all teams’ budgets are spent on hitters, as is done in mine.

In a later version of this, I will enable the spreadsheet to be dynamic and allow users to input their own budget amounts and percentages spent. In the meantime, here is the static version.

Let me try to be as clear as possible about how I determine prices: I do not discount or add premiums based on positional scarcity or relativity. I like to know exactly what a home run, a steal, a run, etc. is worth, no matter who it comes from. It gives me a better idea of the depth at each position and how urgently I need to overspend at the so-called shallower positions, such as catcher and third base, as y’all will see in future installments of these rankings.

Some thoughts:

  • The statistics, to my eye, are all scaled down slightly (except for maybe home runs). However, this effect happens to every player, so the changes are relative and, thus, the prices are theoretically unaffected.
  • Jose Abreu is the #2 first baseman, and it’s not even that close of a call. I honestly thought Paul Goldschmidt‘s stock would be a bit higher — remember, my computer calls the shots here, not me — but the projections believe more in Goldy’s 2014 power (which paced out to 27 home runs in a full season) than his 2013 power, when he dropped 36 bombs. He’s also no lock to stay healthy. Which no one is, really. Still, I may take the over on all his stats, but not by a large margin.
  • I will, however, take the over on Edwin Encarnacion‘s statistics, as he has bested all the projected numbers each of the past three seasons, and he does it all while battling injuries. I will take him at the price simply because of what I will call “health upside” — everyone assumes he will get hurt, but if he can play a full 162, he’s a monster — and because if his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) ever reaches a normal level, his batting average boost will send his stock through the roof.
  • No surprise to see Anthony Rizzo at #5 after last season. I’m a believer, and he will be surrounded by a slew of talented youngsters next year.
  • Freddie Freeman, hero of my hometown, is simply not where I expected him to be after his 2012 season. Granted, he’s an excellent player, but until he chooses to hit for power rather than spray line drives (again, not a problem in real, actual MLB baseball), and until the Braves stop sucking (which may not be any time soon), he may not be that great of a first base option.
  • The two Chrises — Chris Davis and Chris Carter — round out the top 10 with almost identical profiles. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts, low batting averages. The shift may have suffocated Davis’ batting average, but it shouldn’t happen again, and I am considering investing in him if his stock has devalued enough after last year’s atrocity.
  • Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and Ryan Zimmerman are shells of their former selves.
  • Lucas Duda is for real, but his batting average is a liability, as is a lot of the Mets’ lineup.
  • The projections have what amounts to almost zero faith in Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer and Brandon Belt. Mauer may be the saddest tale of them all. He’s still good for a cheap batting average boost, but single-digit homers? I just feel bad for the guy. And the owner who banks on the rebound.
  • Looking at Adam LaRoche‘s projection, I’m starting to really like that move by the White Sox. Part of me feels like he’s going to be undervalued or maybe even not considered on draft day, and that’s appealing to me.
  • Steve Pearce at #16 is an upside play, given his 2014 looks all sorts of legit.
  • Jon Singleton: the poor man’s Chris Carter.
  • And just because Matt Adams is beating the shift instead of hitting home runs doesn’t render him without value. He’s not my cup of tea, but 19 home runs could be conservative for him.
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2014 Rankings: First Base

Rankings are based on a standard 5×5 rotisserie league.

Name – R / RBI / HR / SB / BA

  1. Paul Goldschmidt – 106 / 116 / 34 / 17 / .292
  2. Edwin Encarnacion – 101 / 109 / 41 / 6 / .294
  3. Chris Davis – 102 / 119 / 43 / 3 / .272
  4. Prince Fielder – 92 / 110 / 33 / 1 / .290
  5. Albert Pujols – 97 / 102 / 29 / 4 / .295
  6. Joey Votto – 90 / 90 / 26 / 7 / .310
  7. Freddie Freeman – 94 / 105 / 27 / 2 / .286
  8. Adrian Gonzalez – 89 / 102 / 24 / 1 / .297
  9. Allen Craig – 87 / 112 / 21 / 2 / .293
  10. Brandon Moss – 85 / 96 / 31 / 2 / .250
  11. Jose Abreu
  12. Mark Teixeira – 82 / 96 / 28 / 2 / .259
  13. Mark Trumbo – 76 / 99 / 34 / 4 / .242
  14. Eric Hosmer – 78 / 78 / 20 / 13 / .276
  15. Kendrys Morales – 68 / 83 / 27 / 0 / .283

Thoughts:

  • Just to be clear: these are my projections, so I’m very familiar with the system and most players’ outputs. Still, it doesn’t mean a few don’t surprise me now and then.
  • Hosmer at No. 14 is certainly one of the aforementioned surprises. I’m not as bullish as most other projections, but other projections honestly aren’t too different, either. It’s mainly in the runs and RBI categories where you can find the biggest difference. It’s a toss-up.
  • I can’t project Abreu, but I would project him to be almost an identical clone to Moss: 30-homer potential, a batting average that may drag along and modest counting stats (for a first baseman) while playing for a lackluster White Sox team.
  • I’m big on Freeman — I think he’s due for a breakout of sorts — but I think being as bullish as ESPN is on his batting average is a mistake. Count on Freeman to provide everywhere else, but I’m expecting more modest numbers, and anything better will be gravy.
  • I’ have my doubts about Teixeira, as does everyone else, I’m sure.
  • Matt Adams barely missed the cut at No. 16.
  • Lastly, yes, Encarnacion is better than Davis, even with injury risk. But as I’ve confessed before I have a huge man-crush on Edwin. Regardless, whether you pick one or the other won’t make a huge difference, barring an unpredictable injury to either one.