Tagged: spring training

Panning for gold using spring stats, pitcher edition

Here’s the second installment of my breakdown of spring training stats. You can view the first one by scrolling down like four inches to the previous post. Here is a look at a variety of pitchers in no particular order.

James Shields, KC
Important stats: 14.2 IP, 18 K, 0 BB (0.61 ERA, 0.48 WHIP)
Why they’re important: Shields is firmly entrenched as a solid No. 2 fantasy starter, but he is off to as a hot a start as anyone right now, striking out 11.05 batters per nine innings and walking nobody. Not saying he’s worth bumping up in your rankings, but perhaps he’ll give you a little more than what you expected this year.

Max Scherzer, DET
Important stats: 14.1 IP, 16 K, 2 BB
Why they’re important: It would be unjust to exclude him. He’s having an excellent start, but he’s an excellent pitcher, so this is nothing extraordinary at this point.

Chris Tillman, BAL
Important stats: 12.2 IP, 14 K, 2 BB
Justin Masterson, CLE
Important stats: 13.0 IP, 14 K, 2 BB
Why they’re important: What’s the difference between them? Tillman has a 4.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while Masterson is sporting a 0.00 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. Meanwhile, their underlying stats are almost identical. This is where small sample sizes can really warp perspectives. Each guy is the victim and beneficiary of batting average on balls in play (BAbip), respectively. Only difference is Masterson is giving up fewer fly balls, making him less prone to home runs and hits.

Corey Kluber, CLE
Important stats: 14.1 IP, 15 K, 2 BB
Why they’re important: Maybe you’ve caught on to the trend again: I’m focusing on guys with excellent strikeout rates as well as strikeout-to-walk ratios (K/BB). Ignore the 5.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP; Kluber’s BAbip is a sky-high .395 over this small sample size. He’s steal dealing. Also, he has the fifth-best ground ball rate of qualified spring training pitchers. I’ve read concerns about his home runs allowed last year. Can’t hit a home run on the ground, son. (Well, technically you can, but… shhhhhhh.)

Josh Johnson, SD
Important stats: 13.1 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 13 K, 4 BB
Why they’re important: For people hoping for a comeback, these ratios (8.78 K/9, 2.70 BB/9) are the makings of a solid starter. He’s not on my radar, but I acknowledge reasons why he could be on it (aside from the fact that he used to be one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball).

Alex Wood, ATL
Important stats: 14 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 12 K, 2 BB
Why they’re important: He had a 1.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the minors with a 3.78 K/BB. He followed it up with an 8.9 K/9 in the majors, nearly identical to his minor-league rate. The Braves develop great pitchers (and they know when to deal them… looking at you, Tommy Hanson). Wood is the next in line.

There are pitchers having bad springs, too. Guess which statistic I’m primarily using to evaluate them?

Tony Cingrani, CIN
Important stats: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 13 K, 6 BB
Why they’re important: I’m not as concerned with the ratios as I am the walks, which he’s handing out at a 5.68 walks-per-nine-innings (BB/9) clip. Strikeouts are still there, which is good, and, of course, it’s worth acknowledging the small sample size. Maybe he’s working off the offseason slumber. But I’m keeping my eye on his control.

Tim Hudson, SF
Important stats:
 13.1 IP, 1.58 WHIP, 9 BB
Why they’re important: Nothing matters here except for the lack of control. Cingrani’s walks are a bit disconcerting; Hudson’s walks (6.08 BB/9) is really worrisome, especially for an older pitcher coming back from a gruesome foot/ankle/leg injury. Perhaps it’s a bit early to predict the beginning of the end, but I’ll say it anyway: this could be the beginning of the end of Tim Hudson. It’s a shame, but it ultimately happens to everyone.

Matt Moore, TB
Important stats: 10.1 IP, 2.32 WHIP, 10 K, 11 BB
Why they’re important: He’ll always be loved for his strikeout propensity but his walk rate (9.58 BB/9) is most horrifying of all. I understand if you like him, but I will never draft him because of how he damages my WHIP — and a player with bad command is one bad-luck-BAbip away from having an absolutely miserable year.

Jose Quintana, CHW
Important stats: 6 IP, 30.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP
Why they’re important: And the Worst/Most Humiliating Spring Training award goes to… Jose Quintana! Just look at it. It’s almost impossible how bad he’s been. But, in his defense, there’s a .586 BAbip at work here. And that, my friends, is why sample sizes this small should not be trusted. Some statistical anomalies are worth noting, but this one is simply outrageous. I am not changing my ranking of him based on this.

Other notable pitchers having bad springs, in terms of control: Zach McAllister, Dan Straily

Rookies/prospects having good springs: Yordano Ventura, KC (1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 15-to-1 K/BB ratio in 15.1 IP)… Drew Hutchison, TOR (2.79 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 16-to-1 K/BB ratio in 9.2 IP)…

Rookies/prospects having bad springs: Allen Webster, BOS, continually plagued by command issues (5.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.25 BB/9)… Archie Bradley, ARI, baseball’s No. 1 pitching prospect, also plagued by command issues, a problem he has had his entire professional career (4.32 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 6.48 BB/9)… Trevor Bauer, CLE, allegedly on the comeback trail, but starting to doubt it (10.29 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, 6.43 BB/9)…

I said this verbatim in my last post: “Do your own research, form your own opinions.” It’s important to remember that these are incredibly small smaple sizes, meaning there’s a lot of volatility involved here. Still, some metrics can be very telling, and strikeout and walk rates can be much more indicative of future performance than ERA (or even WHIP, which can be jerked around by fluctuations in BAbip). Again, don’t put your eggs into one basket (where spring training stats is the basket in this analogy), but it’s worth remembering a name or two.

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Panning for gold using spring stats, hitter edition

You’ve probably heard a hundred times this month alone: spring training statistics don’t mean anything. Too many times a player has had a monster spring only to completely flop during the season (do Aaron Hicks or Jackie Bradley circa 2013 ring a bell?). Still, in disbelief we all watched Julio Teheran‘s monster spring last year, and he humiliated batters and baserunners throughout his rookie campaign.

Ultimately, spring stats do tell a story, albeit a short or biased one. But if you know where to look — that is, if you know the stats on which to focus your attention — you can maybe decipher which spring performances are legit and which are not.

Dee Gordon, LAD 2B
Important stats: 12 for 42 (.286 BA), 9 SB, 8 K
Why they’re important: Well, holy smokes. Look at those steals. We’ve always known he’s fast, but wow. Also, he has struck out in only 19 percent of at-bats, which certainly isn’t the worst thing in the world. What I’m looking for here is if he can hold his own at the plate, even if it’s just for a month or two, and right now he’s hitting .286 — nothing spectacular, but not miserable, either. Oh, and did I mention he has four triples already?  Gordon isn’t a top-10 second baseman, but handcuff him to Alexander Guerrero (or simply jump ship when Guerrero finally gets the call) and this could be a great draft strategy.

Billy Hamilton, CIN CF
Important stats: 10 for 33 (.303 BA), 9 SB, 4 K, 6 BB
Why they’re important: Not only is Hamilton stealing bases at an unfathomable rate, he is also barely striking out (only 12 percent of at-bats have ended in a K) and has actually walked more times than he has struck out. Everyone and their mothers were worried Hamilton would be overpowered at the plate. Don’t get caught in the hype, I hear them saying. Yet I can’t help myself. If he keeps putting the bat on the ball the way he’s doing, he will get on base, he will steal, and he will score runs.

Billy Burns, OAK LF
Important stats: 8 SB, 13 K in 52 AB
Why they’re important: OK, maybe I was little too obvious when I sorted MLB.com’s spring training stats by stolen bases. Burns is getting way more hype than anyone in spring training right now, or at least it seems that way. He’s effectively blocked in the A’s outfield, but his speed, plate discipline and glove-work will fast-track him to the majors. Unfortunately, 25 percent of at-bats are ending in strikeouts, so he may be overmatched. No skin off our backs, though, especially if he doesn’t start this year in the majors.

Other stolen base leaders who are legitimate fantasy options: Jarrod Dyson (6 SB) and Rajai Davis (5 SB). I’ve raved about Davis’ fantasy value before.

Mike Moustakas, KC 3B
Important stats: 17 for 35 (.486 BA), 4 HR, 4 K, 6 BB
Why they’re important: Moustakas has been mostly a letdown during his major league career. He’s crushing home runs right now and has walked more than he’s struck out, and people are starting to be optimistic about the guy. I’m hesitant, and I would still leave him undrafted in standard mixed leagues, but he could be worth an extra couple of dollars in AL-only leagues. I’ll watch his name as the season progresses, though. He’s worth following if you’re picking a risky or injury-prone third base asset such as Ryan Zimmerman or Aramis Ramirez.

Brad Miller, SEA SS
Important stats: 14 for 34 (.412 BA), 2 3B, 4 HR, 1 SB
Why they’re important: Guys… are you serious. I cannot love this guy any more. And he’s still hitting triples!!! It’s not a fluke, people. I think Miller is the second coming of Ian Desmond.

Jason Heyward, ATL RF
Important stats: 14 for 40 (.350 BA), 3 HR, 1 SB
Why they’re important: …Jason Heyward? Is that really you?

Javier Baez, CHC SS
Important stats: .297/.297/.703, 4 HR, 1 SB, 11 K, 0 BB
Why they’re important: Is Baez even a real person? The split between his slugging and on-base percentages is impossibly large. Meanwhile, zero walks and 11 K’s in 37 at-bats. This kid is going to be amazing, if not occasionally frustrating at first.

Other business-as-usual home run hitters: Russell Martin (kind of — he had a huge spring last year, too, if I remember correctly), Hunter Pence (4 HR), Giancarlo Stanton (4 HR), Jose Bautista (3 HR), Miguel Cabrera (3 HR), Chris Davis (3 HR), Andrew McCutchen (3 HR).

Nick Castellanos, DET 3B (formerly LF)
Important stats: 18 for 45 (.400 BA), 7 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB, 16 RBI
Why they’re important: Castellanos is a highly touted prospect with very little major-league exposure with which we can form solid opinions about him. But nine multi-base hits in 45 at-bats, plus a pair of bombs and swipes, makes it look like this kid is the real deal, regardless of his sort of lackluster minor-league stats. Don’t get too enamored with the RBI total, but clearly he’s not afraid of so-called clutch situations, either.

Dustin Ackley, SEA LF (formerly 2B)
Important stats: .432/.462/.703, 1 HR, 6 K in 37 AB
Why they’re important: Maybe the former No. 2 pick can recoup some of his losses. He had a somewhat strong showing in the latter half of 2013. It will be interesting to see if it carries over. As the Magic 8-Ball might say, “All signs point to yes.” Or something like that.

As for players who scare me right now, Corey Hart is batting .129/.250/.161 with 16 strikeouts in 31 at-bats; B.J. Upton is batting .297/.366/.351 but with 14 strikeouts in 37 at-bats, an unsustainable rate for that batting average; and Domonic Brown is batting a miserable .171/.326/.229 with 12 strikeouts in 35 at-bats, albeit with eight walks.

Do your own research, form your own opinions. This is just a sampling of the many names that are shining bright or falling flat. And, of course, it’s simply too risky to make a decision on such a small sample size. But it never hurts to remember a name or two.

Stock watch: Rajai Davis up, Gausman down

I wrote about Rajai Davis as a legitimate must-draft fantasy option a couple of months ago. Now, with the news that Detroit Tigers outfielder Andy Dirks is ailing, Davis looks to have left field all to himself.

Davis has finished 100th and 112th on the ESPN player rater in 2012 and 2013, respectively, while going largely undrafted both years. He swiped 45 bags in 360 plate appearances last year. That’s insane. He has also seen his power spike the past two years, and he’s not a complete loss in the batting average department, making him more than a one-trick pony.

There’s still a possibility that the Tigers shop for a platoon partner for Davis for the 12 weeks of the season Dirks is expected to miss. But… why? It’s only 12 weeks. Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN stated the possibility is there because of Davis’ poor split against right-handed pitching. But it’s not that bad. Granted, he’d be much more effective hitting only lefties — to the tune of .294/.354/.425 for his career — but the extra at-bats against righties could maybe help the guy improve, if not at least bolster his counting stats to the detriment of his batting average.

Worst case scenario, Davis is still a platoon guy who gets 300 to 400 at-bats, aka 35-ish stolen bases and a neutral batting average. However, if he gets left field all to himself until June, the extra 100 at-bats he may earn make him all the more attractive.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles’ signing of the fallen Johan Santana has all but blocked rookie Kevin Gausman, who stumbled in his major league debut but caught himself after a move to the bullpen. The strikeouts are there and his control is excellent, but he’s now blocked by Wei-Yin Chen, Santana and Korean import Suk-min Yoon for the No. 5 starter spot. There’s an excellent chance that Bud Norris and Chen flail as the fourth and fifth starters as well as Santana never regaining form and reaching the majors, meaning perhaps a mid-season move to the rotation. But, for now, Gausman is buried, and it’s incredibly unfortunate to fantasy owners.

Stay tune for my preseason rankings as I list the top 15 catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops and closers for 2014. I will also return with more bold predictions before the season’s start.

Now go watch some spring training!

Implications of spring training injuries and news

We’re only a couple of days in and teams are already crying “man down!”

The Seattle Mariners’ No. 2 starter Hisashi Iwakuma strained his finger on the first day of spring training, sidelining him for four to six weeks. Considering spring training is a time for conditioning and preparing for the season (duh), Iwakuma fans and owners can only hope he will be participating in workouts with the exception of throwing to keep pace. Still, that could be legitimate four to six weeks of the season we could miss of him, even if he is healthy by Opening Day, which he is expected to be.

The New York Yankees’ ace CC Sabathia has allegedly lost more weight but, instead of simply slimming down, has added more muscle. He allegedly felt weak last year after committing to a lifestyle change that saw him lose 35-or-so pounds. It’s an interesting situation; I keep Sabathia ranked around 40th of starting pitchers, but I’ll be tracking his velocity through the spring, if possible. If he’s got some of it back, it could boost his stock. It was only two years ago that Tim Lincecum halted his routine of fast food binges and started eating healthily — right before he had the worst season of his career, and lost mph and life on his fastball. Coincidence?

Also, the Cincinnati Reds’ ace Mat Latos had surgery on his knee to clean up some stuff going on down there. (Pretty scientific, right?) It’s supposed to be minor — he’ll be up and running in 10 days — but there’s always a chance of complications, even if the probability is slim. And, like Iwakuma, one has to hope the lost time doesn’t affect his Opening Day start.

Cy Young winner Justin Verlander says he feels fine and will be ready for Opening Day. It remains to be seen how it will affect his throwing, though. One more bad year and things could start getting ugly.

And American League MVP Miguel Cabrera says he feels stronger after core surgery this offseason. Is that even possible? It could be hot air, but it’s just scary thinking about what kind of season he could have feeling perfectly healthy — and wondering how much his woes last year plagued him before they became very obvious in the latter third of the season.

Bonus coverage: Is it easy to dismiss Trevor Bauer after his rough-and-tumble stay in the bigs so far? Yes. And is it easy to dismiss the PR machine churning in Cleveland trying to make him look like he’s not a lost cause? Yes. But! Let us consider one thing: Mickey Callaway did something magical last year when he revived the careers of both Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir. Is it out of the question that he can do the same for the third overall pick of the 2011 draft?

As I always say, “keep your eye on so-and-so during spring training”… But seriously, if Bauer is walking fewer than 4 BB/9 in his first few starts of the season, he will have my attention.